Tuesday, November 22, 2011

The real effects of debt

That's the title of this working paper from the Bank for International Settlements. Here's its executive summary.

At moderate levels, debt improves welfare and enhances growth. But high levels can be damaging. When does debt go from good to bad? We address this question using a new dataset that includes the level of government, non-financial corporate and household debt in 18 OECD countries from 1980 to 2010. Our results support the view that, beyond a certain level, debt is a drag on growth. For government debt, the threshold is around 85% of GDP. The immediate implication is that countries with high debt must act quickly and decisively to address their fiscal problems. The longer-term lesson is that, to build the fiscal buffer required to address extraordinary events, governments should keep debt well below the estimated thresholds. Our examination of other types of debt yields similar conclusions. When corporate debt goes beyond 90% of GDP, it becomes a drag on growth. And for household debt, we report a threshold around 85% of GDP, although the impact is very imprecisely estimated.

The working paper's language is technical, and a bit complex at times: but it addresses the pro's and con's of debt more comprehensively than any other source I've yet found. In particular, it's useful because it doesn't only consider government debt, but also commercial and private (i.e. household) debt. It shows how these are interrelated, with each element affecting the others.

Highly recommended reading for anyone who wants to understand our present economic woes.


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